Asian Metals Market Update

By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

-- Posted Friday, 14 December 2012 | Share this article | Source: GoldSeek.com

·         Technically gold and silver are in a neutral zone.

·         Today’s close will set the direction for next week.

General market conditions

The firmness in gold prices is an indication that bears are having a hard time. Gold did not fall like a pack of cards and the fact it managed to trade over $1685 could result in bears giving up their fight if gold is able to trade over $1685 today. Silver fell but is volatile. I am not going to get gung ho over the bear trend in gold and silver and would rather wait for gold to fall below $1685 and silver to remain below $3220 to press the sell button. Base metals will be volatile. The inability of gold to fall below $1685 is also attributed to higher investment demand and jewelry demand. 

The Japanese elections on Sunday could be the key for the yen. A stable government could result in gains for the yen against the US dollar. The next elections will be held in July 2013. The yen will be very volatile in 2013. We prefer to short the yen against the US dollar with a price target of 91.00 by April 2013. 

Market focus will be on the US fiscal cliff issue apart from the economy. 

COMEX TECHNICAL VIEW

COMEX SILVER MARCH 2013 – current price $3269.00

Bullish over $3269 with $3303-3371 as price target

Bearish below $3220 with $3178-$3130 as price target

Neutral Zone between: $3220-$3269

Break point: $3269

• Yesterday silver managed to recover after fall to $3225 and now needs to trade over $3225 to target $3365
• Another wave of selling will be there below $3225 only.

Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani

Gold’s November Returns - 5 and 10 Year Average Gains Of 5.6% and 5%

Gold’s November Returns - 5 and 10 Year Average Gains Of 5.6% and 5%

Source: www.Goldseek.com
-- Posted Thursday, 1 November 2012 | Share this article | Source: GoldSeek.com

Today’s AM fix was USD 1,723.25, EUR 1,330.59, and GBP 1,065.64 per ounce. 
Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,718.00, EUR 1,321.54, and GBP 1,065.89 per ounce.

Gold climbed $11.70 or 0.68% yesterday and closed at $1,721.20. Silver surged to hit a high of $32.411 and subsequently gave up some of its gains but still finished with a gain of 1.51%.

The yellow metal remained steady as China’s PMI grew to 50.2 from 49.8. This was the first increase seen in three months and a reading greater than 50 signals expansion.

Gold broke above recent resistance at $1,720/oz yesterday ahead of the key nonfarm payrolls report tomorrow and the US Presidential election next week.

Gold dropped 2.8% during October, its first one-month decline since May but remains 10.2% higher so far in 2012. Stock markets internationally struggled in October. The Dow finished the month with a 2.5% loss, with the S&P 500 off 2% and the NASDAQ down 4.5%. Tech darling stock Apple fell 10% in the month.

For the year, however, the Dow is still up 7.2%, with the S&P 500 up 12.3% and the NASDAQ up 14.3%.

The nearly 3% drop for gold represents another buying opportunity, possibly the last optimal intermediate buying opportunity for many months.

While October is one of the weakest months for gold, November on the other hand is the strongest month.

The data shows (see ‘Gold Seasonality Table’ and ‘Gold Seasonal 30 Years Chart’) how gold’s strongest month for returns in the last 5, 10 years and 30 years is November – and by a significant degree.

 Gold Seasonality Table -  November Returns - 5 and 10 Year Average Gains Of 5.6% and 5%As per the ‘Gold Seasonality Table’ from Bloomberg , the 5 year average (2007-2011) saw returns of 5.6% and the 10 year average (2002-2011) saw returns of 5.1%

Gold’s outperformance in November is significant. The 10 year average data shows that September was the next strongest month with a 2.6% average return. Then came August at 2.3% and January at 2.2%.

The 5 year average data shows that February was the next strongest month with a 3.7% average return.  Then came September at 3% and January at 2.2% (see chart above).

Gold Spot $/oz, May 2008-Nov. 2010 – (Bloomberg)

Interestingly, November’s maximum gain over the 5 and 10 year period was the 12.9% gain seen in November 2008 – the month President Obama was elected.

History never repeats but it often rhymes and we expect gold to again outperform in November.

Cross Currency Table – (Bloomberg)

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NEWSWIRE(Bloomberg) -- Turkey Exchange Says Gold Imports Were 3.7 Tons Last Month

Silver imports were 20.2t in October, Istanbul Gold Exchange says on its website.

(Bloomberg) -- Gold coin sales estimated at 59,000 oz vs 68,500 oz, data from the U.S. Mint website show.  Silver coin sales fall to 3.153m oz from 3.255m.

(Bloomberg) --  Mexico’s August Silver Production Totaled 344,804 Kilograms

Mexico’s August silver production was 344,804 kilograms, the National Statistics Agency said today on its website.

(Bloomberg) -- SPDR Gold Trust Holdings Unchanged at 1,336.3 Tons by Yesterday

Gold holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange-traded fund backed by bullion, were unchanged at 1,336.3 metric tons as of Oct. 31, according to figures on the company’s website.

The data was updated for the first time since Oct. 26 because the stock market was closed for two days for Hurricane Sandy and there was no information on holdings.